Bayesian thinking helps you make better decisions by updating your beliefs when new evidence appears. Even in games of chance like scratch-off lotteries, paying attention to information can improve ...

Discover how credibility theory helps actuaries use historical data to estimate risks and set insurance premiums; learn how ...

Mathematicians rely on numbers, but finding words to explain different levels of certainty has stymied everyone from the ...

Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.

In the Million Veteran Program Return Of Actionable Results (ROAR) randomized trial, investigators tested the impact of ...

Background Annually, 4% of the global population undergoes non-cardiac surgery, with 30% of those patients having at least ...

Introduction After the WHO prequalified the first vaccine against mpox, we aimed to identify the influence of vaccine ...

Physicists have derived a quantum version of Bayes’ rule, revealing how beliefs and probabilities update in the quantum realm with potential applications in computing and beyond. Credit: Shutterstock ...

A year ago today, a violent storm struck the coast of the sleepy Sicilian fishing village of Porticello. High winds and dramatic thunder and lightning are not unheard of around this time of year in ...

Many cybersecurity leaders kick off each new year with predictions for the year to come. You may have seen a deluge of them over the last month or so: "Cyberattacks will continue to be a problem." ...