Abstract: Robert Lucas’s famous critique of macro modeling focused the attention of modelers on what he called adaptive expectations: What’s happening “now” in a model’s data space is more important ...

The macro economy, like the global climate, is a complex system (highly nonlinear and buffeted by random shocks) that defies attempts to model it and predict its future path. The challenge of ...

Agent-based modelling (ABM) has emerged as a pivotal tool in macroeconomics and economic policy analysis. By simulating the interactions of numerous heterogeneous agents — such as households, firms, ...

Central banks and other policy institutions have a long history of using macroeconomic models to help prepare forecasts and to quantify the economic consequences of various policies. Likewise, private ...

The National Academies will convene a workshop to improve understanding of the relationships between the macroeconomy and climate change and climate-related impacts. The workshop will consider ...

Research has revealed several facts about financial crises based on historical data. Crises are rare events that are associated with severe recessions that are typically deeper than normal recessions.

The macroeconomic effects of tax reform are a subject of significant discussion and controversy. In 2015, the House of Representatives adopted a new “dynamic scoring” rule requiring a point estimate ...